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The Cycle

News/Business. Politics, the economy, media, sports and any other issues that grab people's attention. New.

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Us 18, Steve 8, Boehner 7, Obama 7, John Boehner 5, Sandy 4, Nate 4, Florida 4, Rendell 3, Paul Ryan 3, New Hampshire 3, Toure 3, Carl 2, Brown 2, Geico 2, John Mccain 2, Romney 2, Heidi Heitkamp 2, Mcconnell 2, Nate Cohn 2,
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  MSNBC    The Cycle    News/Business. Politics, the economy, media, sports  
   and any other issues that grab people's attention. New.  

    November 7, 2012
    3:00 - 4:00pm EST  

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bayer aspirin was the first thing the emts gave me. now, i'm on a bayer aspirin regimen. [ male announcer ] be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. [ woman ] learn from my story. it's four score for president obama. number 44 gets four more years in the white house. the race is finally over. now the next chapter begins. here on capitol hill, senate democrats are jubilant. the counterparts in the house facing serious questions about their future. we'll break it all down. >> i'm s.e. cupp. i'm touri. that's a temporary condition. i've been wondering for weeks now. do you like me map? let's say the crystal ball is on a roll. see what i did there? wednesday, november 7th and you
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are in "the cycle." >> we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states. we are and forever will be the united states of america. >> okay. we have a power-packed "cycle" today. live the first family and president will leave chicago in 45 minutes and head back to the white house. yes, to quote the crowds -- >> four more years. four more years. >> and that's exactly what a re-elected bra eed barack obama get, four more years. is it a wartime president or bipartisan president? hint. this was the president at his victory speech in chicago last
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night. >> in the weeks ahead i also look forward to sitting down with governor romney to talk about where we can work together to move this country forward and in the coming weeks an months i am looking forward to reaching out and working with leaders of both parties to meet the challenges we can only solve together. reducing our deficit, reforming our tax code, fixing our immigration system, freeing ourselves from foreign oil. we've got more work to do. >> at 3:30, a look at what the house republicans are thinking when speaker boehner speaks. we'll have that live. so, how exactly did we get here? the polls this weekend shows the president with a small but consistent lead and that's exactly how it turned out. in the raw vote, a two-point win. 50% to 48% in the popular vote. in the electoral college, the president won every single key battle ground state with the
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exception of north carolina, and yes, florida, we are still waiting for you. after $2 billion on states, only two changed colors. democrats did keep the senate and have actually added to their majority. while the republicans maintain control of the house. still waiting on some of those house races now. the key as the president's people told us did end up being demographics and turnout. latinos continue their embrace of the democrats and the rejection of the republicans. the white share of the vote was 72% which was exactly what plouffe, axelrod and mecino told us it would be. we want to break news here. >> we have mugs. we are excited. i'm sure our viewers are excited. >> on a day of big news, this
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was breaking. >> this is what we care about. no. we get in to the politics of this, what happened, the demographic break down and quickly say what this means for the country. health care stays. it means paul ryan's budget is essentially irrelevant since they weren't able to get the majority in the senate and maybe more importantly i think latino voters made their voice heard loud and clear to both parties in this election and comprehensive immigration reform of some sort will have to be a priority in the next administration. >> you're absolutely right. the gop has to move to the left on the immigration. latino issues. black and brown voters emerged this year as power brokers saying white people cannot get together in a historic grouping and choose who they want. you have to deal with black and brown people as serious at the electoral level. the gop at this point is a madman group in a modern family group. i stole that of a tweet of a
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strategist just before we hit the air. they have to adapt to the modern world which is not where they are right now. >> i think a lot of republicans, i saw it last night and today, they try to place blame somewhere and they're going to do it inappropriately. they're going to blame sandy, chris christie, paul ryan. they're going to blame voters for being dumb and voting against their interests. i think and i've said this before, president obama because mitt romney was the wrong candidate at the wrong time. i think he would have won in 2008. he needed a time machine. a bad year to be the guy running against universal health care when you crafted a similar piece of legislation in massachusetts. running on a message of business and success and capitalism when that's demonized in the class war. it was just the wrong fit for this year. >> steve? >> yeah. you know, guys, i mean, this was obviously a momentous win for obama and the democrats and a lot to dissect in terms of demographics and where politics
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in this country go from here and something to be said for the idea that obama in the campaign was in slightly stronger shape than a lot of people appreciated. political scientists who sort of step away from the day-to-day campaigning and look at the structural factors said obama's approval rating is at or near 50% for basically this entire year. unemployment rate was high but it was slowly coming down. and income was growing, you know, for the year modestly and growing for the year before the election. so political scientists looked and said, obama was a slight favorite to be re-elected and he did win again. there's a lot to be said, momentous victim ri and about a two-point win in the popular vote. that was a sign that he was stronger than people realized. >> now the main man at politico. jonathan, first off, how excited are you about "the cycle's" new mugs? >> i'm not because you didn't send me one. >> we got them at this moment. >> i feel deprived here.
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>> it's in the mail, brother. >> how do you look at the race? obama model is better than romney mod snell. >> if you look at the hispanic vote, he did more poorly than john mccain and john mccain did poorer than president bush. they have to broaden the tent, figure out how to message better and hispanics not just change on the policy a little bit but on the messaging. the way that hispanics talking to hispanic voters and perceive republicans to be threatening toward them. when you're talking about building fences, deporting people. that doesn't hit well. the republican primary business not helpful in terms of recruiting hispanic voters to the republican side. you know, i think there are other factors and i would say this was a very, very close election not just in the popular vote but also in the electoral college. we are used to very close electoral college wins for presidents but that's an
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anomaly, not the norm over the years. >> didn't seem all that close to me but that number will go up when florida comes in, i think. i want you to drill down on what you said about latino voters because there's been a lot of talk rightly so about how far to the right mitt romney moved the comments about self deportation and saying to veto the dream act and looking at the exit poll numbers and the republican haves a bigger problem with latinos than just immigration on issues of the economy. latino voters overwhelmingly by a 2 to 1 margin favored president obama on issues of handling the deficit and normally an issue that republicans do better on. the president was more trusted. medicare, you know, there's a wide range of issues and seems like latino voters approve of the democratic approach. what do you do about that? >> tailor the messages and policies better to bring latinos
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in. there are republicans in the recent past who have done very well at making hispanics feel like they're part of the coalition. of course mentioned george w. bush. jeb bush in florida before him. certainly a lot of republican establishment in washington over time. karl rove, ken mellman. others. understood the demographic changes and the republicans need hispanics to be part of the coalition and historic levels of democratic advantage with african-americans without president obama on the ticket perhaps republicans would have a chance to make a little dent there in the future election, as well. you know, those are different groups but in some ways share some of the same issues. some of them anyway. in terms of the economy. one of the thing that is came out of the commit polling last night was many more people felt like president obama understood people coming from their perspective. people felt more that he was doing things for the middle class and as far as romney seen
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less as a candidate of the middle class. so these are things where the republicans more broadly probably need to message, not just to latinos and african-americans but also to whites in the middle class and lower classes. >> to add to the list, young people made up a larger share of the electorate last year than 2008 and steve you had something on this, too. >> well, yeah. i wanted to piggyback on what jonathan said there because i think a story of the last four years is a refusal of the republican party to reckon with the demographic and cultural changes that the 2008 election end katded. they basically decided they were going to -- they didn't need to change or expand the coalition. they could sort of just be the knee jerk, you know, opposition to president obama and those instincts were initially rewarded. they had the economy was very rough. obama's approval rating fell down quickly in 2009 and great midterm election in 2010 and the initial sort of signs, you know, really kind of rewarded their behavior and their unwillingness
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to reckon with the new american majority coalition of the senate is the term that ron brownstein is always using and last night you really saw what that majority can do when it's kind of activated. latinos, african-americans, it's growing asian population. it's women, college educated women. it's gays, it is people that know gays and know gay people in the family or friends and maybe 10 or 20 years ago who didn't and don't like the tone of the republican party on that. i think the great open question right now is how the republican party responds to this. i think anybody that says they know it's way to premature. sure, it's possible to retrench further but parties can move and can be a little more nimble than we appreciate and it's true. it wasn't that long ago that republicans doing well with latinos. it could be a messy and ugly process but it's going to be the story to watch in the days,
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weeks, months and years ahead. >> i think the good news for the gop is that americans have elected a lot of great minority candidates in to republican offices. there are a lot of good republicans on the bench to sort of tweak the message and carry the man the mantle. jonathan, the gop needs to recalibrate and assess and spend sometime thinking about what just happened. but i just want to keep this a little bit in perspective. the gop retained the house and would have won the senate if not for a couple kooks. in light of that, you could just suggest had they won the senate we would be talking about a presidential win in which case you could say, look, this was a likable president and a lot of people felt the economy was getting better. >> i think it's dangerous for the republicans politically to
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look at the senate races and say we could have had it if just for your words a couple of kooks. democrats picked up two seats last night. they were defending 23 sfeets. republicans feeting 10 seats. if you pull out a few election cycles it's been a tough time for republicans with their candidates. in 2006, democrats won the senate and weren't expected to do that. in 2008, they expanded to a 60-seat majority and hadn't seen in a long time. in 2010, you saw republicans have a chance to pick up the senate and fell short with candidates in colorado, chris o'donnell in delaware and sharon angle in nevada. then this year, look, if you didn't have the anomalies in missouri and indiana and candidates felt the need to explain their positions on rape and never a good plan in politics, much less just in social conversation -- >> in life. >> in life, yeah. i mean, but even if you tossed those out you are talking about
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a senate to otherwise be exactly what it was the day before. >> remarkable. >> i think republicans fall in to a trap looking at when's going on in the senate and don't sense a problem in terms of not just messaging but candidate selection. there's a problem of washington republicans in that they have lost the ability to push for the candidates they want in states. there's a backlash against that and need to find a way to connect with their grassroots and find candidates acceptable to the grass roots and competitive. >> absolutely. >> quickly, one thing on the martinez, rubio thing, you're right but it's more than a couple people on the stage and having the policies that want to bring people in to the party. >> that's why i said they need to rework their messages. we have the folks in the bench. they need to talk about their policies in more effective ways. >> to you, john, the latino impact, the big things like the president had empathy on the side but is it really about having a good message and having
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perhaps the greatest get out the vote effort in the history of politics? is that really what happened here? >> i think what we're going to find and may find out there's actually less get out the vote this time than there was in the last election. at least looking at the numbers so far. looks like they fall short of last time. i think what the obama campaign has done that's so -- i would say revolutionary but built on a lot of things that came before it from the howard dean campaign, the republicans in '04 with the micro targeting and narrow cast and you saw big contrast this time around. mitt romney talking about the economy broadly. versus barack obama talking to individual groups about what he could do for them. whether it was women on reproductive rights, whether it was latinos with the executive order essentially implementing parts of the dream act. you know, if you look at the various groups, gays and lesbians, there was also do not -- don't ask don't tell
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being repelled and other things and so i think there's a big contrast there. >> thanks so much for joining us. >> take care. next up, big doings for the do-nothing congress. with america on the fiscal cliff, sorry, will washington elect to make the tough choices? [ male announcer ] how do you trade? with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use scottrader streaming quotes. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade.
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why are you upset? >> they said i can't vote.
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>> why can't you vote? >> because i'm not 18 years old. >> how does it make you feel? >> like i'm feeling. >> certainly a tough night for that little boy, i guess. but also for republicans who are hoping to pick up some seats in the u.s. senate. i'm here in the nation's capital where the face of congress is altered. let's start in the senate. democrats in control and gained seats. kind of amazing since at the start of the cycle everyone assumed they were going to lose control. in montana, in north dakota, both traditionally republican states, surprised wins for democrats. nbc declared montana for jon tester today and in north dakota democrat heidi heitkamp is the apparent winner. other big senate races, ted kennedy's old seat, flips back to blue with senator-elect
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elizabeth warren and wisconsin sends the first openly gay person to the senate, tammy baldwin and indiana a seat the gop flushed away with a far right candidate, mourdock. shifting gears to other side of the capitol, republicans hold the house and will see a small net loss when the results are in. why didn't the democrats come closer? think iowa's 3rd district tells the story. what was a fair fight. democrats needed to win races like this last night but they fell short here and elsewhere. they did gain back some real ground in blue state america. flipped two gop seats in new hampshire, knocked off two incumbents and four more in illinois and offset by north carolina, kentucky and arkansas where they drew maps friendly to their party. guys, i guess throw it to the table here. i guess the comment i would make about this, the upshot of this,
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obviously, a very good night for democrats. supposed to lose the senate, gained seats. obama was the embattled incumbent. re-elected, obviously. they made gains in the house and the story today is there a reckoning in the republican party with how they lost and got to this point for them? i'm a big believer in the two-party system. i believe we need two healthy and vibrant political parties and i think there was -- that sort of vision of american government was under attack a little bit last couple of years because that two-party system in this country to work it's critical that the opposition party be a functioning team player in government and not just be, you know, an opposition party that obstructs and opposes and criticizes. that works in a parliamentary democracy like britain. that is basically how the republican party chose to behave for four years. i don't think it was a good model and if it's rewarded last night by the electorate it would
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have created and normalized behavior that democrats in the minority and when they didn't have the white house they would then have sort of mimicked and would have created a very unfortunate cycle. so encouraging results on that front just for a healthy two-party system, i think. >> i think, you know, don't want to rain on your parade, steve, but as dan friedman said, if you didn't like the 112th congress, you will hate the 113th. doesn't look like anything's going to get better. i would just say that if you look across the electoral wins, if you look across the house and senate, pick-ups, it is really hard to make a lot of sense of it. there were tea party candidates pushed out. many were kept. there were plenty of blue dog democrats who lost their seats. they were voted out. they retired. they knew they couldn't win. that caucus down to 12 or 15.
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and for as much talk as there's been about the gop moving too far to the right, to appeal in a national election to the middle, i think democrats might be in danger of that, as well, if they continue sort of losing that middle and going too far to the left. i think that will be something to watch over the next four years. they can get in it a midterm year but a national year as republicans pointed out it's hard. >> i was watching to see what would be the future of obstruction when we put the composition together. i think we have seen the tea leaves of it, look at what john boehner had to say last night. no mandate for raising tax rates. senator mcconnell also, to the extent that he, barack obama, wants to move to the center we'll be there to meet him halfway so clearly obstruction is going to continue. he has to do something for us. he has to come tard us. steve told us obama governed from the middle and mcconnell
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wants him to move to the right to meet him? clearly, the disrespect and opposition will continue. >> i want to make a quick note in terms of historic gains for women last night in new hampshire. the democrats put forward an all-women slate. they all won and for the first time ever we have women at the gubernatorial and the congressional level. no men in the new hampshire congressional delegation. first time ever. in the senate we have whole binders full of women. previous record high number of women with 17. now we have 20 with heidi heitkamp's win. incredible stuff there. >> former governor rendell is next in the guest spot but first jon stewart. >> trickling in about the presidential race, for more out to our guests. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> tonight's results, guys? >> yeah. >> what do you think? >> jon, tonight's results they have caused a seismic shift in
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what we're forecasting for the 2016 election. >> uh-huh? >> the real winner tonight looks to be hillary clinton who made silver is now projecting at 68% chance of victory over jeb bush. yeah. that's up from 54% just a few hours ago. [ female announcer ] lactaid milk is easy to digest. it's real milk full of calcium and vitamin d. and tastes simply delicious. for those of us with lactose intolerance... lactaid® milk. the original 100% lactose-free milk. this reduced sodium soup says it may help lower cholesterol, how does it work? you just have to eat it as part of your heart healthy diet. step 1. eat the soup. all those veggies and beans, that's what may help lower your cholesterol and -- well that's easy [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup.
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speaker of the house john boehner expected at any moment to address the need for congress to prevent the fiscal cliff. we heard the president last night pledging to reach out to leaders of both parties but are they going to answer? governor red rendell, we have john boehner and harry reid and president barack obama and a status quo election in that sense but do you think the president will have more success to get people to work together in the next administration? >> well, i think that there are
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two things operating here. number one, the fact that that's a crisis. fiscal cliff is a skri sis. debt situation overall is a crisis and creates a environment of a real opportunity to get something done. most big changes, most big changes occur when there is a crisis vomit. secondly the president is free to lead. he doesn't have to worry about offending the base and saying he's for significant entitlement reform. he can lead and come to the middle saying to mitch mcconnell and john boehner, look, i'm for significant entitlement reform and revenues with it. let's go. if he needs and public with a plan, and the republicans torpedo that plan refusing to raise revenue, i think they're going to face political extinction in the next election because americans want the problems taken care of. >> governor? i'm sorry. i have to interrupt you.
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>> my congratulations to president obama and the first lady and the vice president biden and dr. biden. like many americans, i was hoping that this presidential election would turn out a little differently. mitt romney and paul ryan are good men. they're good leaders. i want to wish mitt and ann, paul and jenna and their families well. the american people have spoken. they have re-elected president obama and they have again re-elected a republican majority in the house of representatives. if there's a mandate in yesterday's results it's a mandate for us to find a way to work together on the solutions to the challenges that we all face as a nation. and my message today is not one of confrontation but one of conviction. in the weeks and months ahead we face a series of tremendous challenges and great opportunity. just weeks away from now looms the so-called fiscal cliff. combination of automatic
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spending cuts and tax increases mandated by law. within months congress will be asked to raise the nation's debt ceiling. around the same time legislation will be needed to keep the government running as a continuing resolution under which we're currenting operating expires. amid all of these short term hurdles we face the greatest challenge of all. a massive debt that's smothering growth and exceeding the size of the economy. there will be many who will say with the election over we should confront the first of these challenges by simply letting the top two tax rates expire and pushing the sequester off to some other date. think'd have us engage in the same short-term temporary policies that helped put us in the fix and in essence they're saying let's have more of the same. let's agree to drive the economy off part of the fiscal cliff and instead of driving it off the whole fiscal cliff and call it a day.
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you know, that might get us out of town but not out of the problem and it will also hurt our economy. we can't keep going on like that and setting the bar that low. it's time that we raise the bar. you know, the american people this week didn't give us a mandate to simply do the simple thing. they elected us to lead. they gave us a mandate to work together to do the best for our country. we know what the best thing to do would be. that would be an agreement that sends the signal to the economy and to the world after years of punt onge the mayor fiscal challenge that is we face 2013 is going to be different. it would be an agreement that begins to pave the way for long-term growth that's essential if we want to lift the cloud of debt that's hanging over our country. we won't solve the problem of our fiscal imbalance overnight. and certainly won't do in it a lame duck session of congress. and it won't be solved simply by
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raising taxes or taking a plunge off the fiscal cliff. what we can do is avert the cliff in a man they are's a down payment on and a catalyst for major solutions enacted in 2013 to begin to solve the problem. mr. president, the republican majority here in the house stands read ri di to work with you to do what's best for our country and that's what i told the president earlier today. that's the will of the people and we answer to them. doing what's best means fully considering the impact of the policy wes might set in motion. the independent accounting firm ernst & young says going over the top rates cost more than 700,000 jobs. they also confirmed that many of those hit with a rate increase is small business owners, the very people who both acknowledge
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are the key to private sector job creation. there's an alternative to going over the fiscal cliff in whole or in part. it involves making real changes to the financial structure of entitlement programs to curb special interest loopholes and deductions. by working together and creating a fairer, cleaner, safer tax code we can have a stronger economy. this means more revenue which is what the president seeks. because the american people expect us to find common ground, we're willing to accept some additional revenues, via tax reform. there's a model for tax reform that supports economic growth. it happened in 1986 with a democrat house run by tip o'neill and a republican president named ronald reagan. in 1986, there, too, were skeptics who doubted the economics of tax reform. they were wrong. as stanford economist and former
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treasury secretary schultz put it, the 1986 reform is the sort of unsung hero of the very good economic times we have had for a long time. the time has come again to revamp the tax code and if we do, he argues, we'll get a gusher and there will be a response and revenue will come in. but the american people also expect us to solve the problem. and for that reason, in order to garner republican support for new revenues, the president must be willing to reduce spending and shore up entitlement program that is are the primary drivers of our debt. if we aren't seeking our will on the president, we're asking him to make good on the balanced approach. the president called for a balanced approach to the deficit of combination of spending cuts and increased revenue but a balanced approach isn't balanced if it means higher taxes on small businesses that are the key to getting our economy moving again and keeping it
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moving. a balanced approach isn't balance if it means we increase the amount of money coming in to the coffers of government but we don't cut spending and address entitlements at the same time. a balanced approach isn't balanced if it's done in the old way of raising taxes now and umt matly failing to cut spending in the future. a balanced approach isn't balanced if it means slashing national defense instead of making the common sense spending cut that is are truly needed. real economic growth alluded us in the first term of this president. for the purposes of forging a bipartisan agreement that begins to solve the problem, we're willing to accept new revenue under the right conditions. what matters is where the increased revenue comes from and what type of reform comes with it. does the increased revenue come from government taking a larger share of what the american
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people earn through higher tax rates or as a by-product of growing our economy, energized by a simpler, cleaner, fairer tax code with fewer loopholes and lower rates for all? >> that is john boehner describing what his version of a balanced approach to a grand bargain type of deal would look like. we have governor ed rendell there. what do you make of that? >> as co-chairman of campaign to fix the debt, i cochaired with judd gregg from new hampshire, there's a lot in what speaker boehner said i approve of. i think we need a balanced approach. we do need to reduce spending and we need to cut the military budget. bob gates a republican hawk says we can cut it $80 billion a year. we spend more than the top 20 nations in the world on military spending. we don't need to to still be
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secure and the strongest country in the world and consider reforming the tax code but it has to produce substantial revenue. we need to do this in a big way. speaker boehner's right about that. we can't kick the can down the road. but that means doing a lot of things that are painful to people on all sides of the equation. but it's the only way that it gets it done. i hope the president responds positively to this. i mean, we can nitpick it. surely we can point out when bill clinton raised taxes on the top 2% of americans it produced a greatest period of economic growth in the last 60 years. 23 million new jobs created so i don't know that speaker boehner's contention of a job killer to do that is correct. >> right. >> the evidence shows that it's incorrect but look. the bottom line is the speaker says he's willing to accept revenue. i hope he's speaking for a majority of his caucus. if he is, we have a chance to do
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some really good things. >> steve? >> yeah. governor, we have been down this road, though, before. i remember republicans before when we had the grand bargain negotiation summer of 2011 and unlike republicans saying we're likely to accept new revenue and talking about the thing that mitt romney proposed in the presidential campaign and bringing down the marginal tax rates on rich and maybe other people and dealing with loopholes and saying we have extra revenue there. the central question and fiscal cliff, are we going to go back to the clinton era tax rates. 36% and 39.6% rates? we have been living a decade without them. it exploded the deficit. didn't do anything for economic growth. here's the final opportunity for democrats to get back to the clinton level and seems to me the nightmare scenario of democrats is obama short circuits the opportunity here, cuts the grand bargain more on the republicans' terms and revenue source that boehner is looking for and entitlement
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reform aspect and shouldn't this be something democrats should be willing to work for? >> well, look. speaker boehner ignored the fact that in 2011 the president agreed to what the equivalent of a trillion dollars in spending cuts already. and that's certainly has to be factored in to the equation talking about spending cuts because that's part of it. but look, simpson-bowles says we can do this. we can cut the corporate tax rates significantly by removing a lot of the corporate loopholes that would produce a whole lot of revenue. a boatload of revenue. the devil is in the details. i think for us as democrats we ought to be interested in one thing, steve. that's "x." "x" is what revenue is produced and if revenue is produced in a fair way i think that's the key and if it's enough revenue produced in away that's fair to
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the middle class regardless of how it comes we ought to consider that as a potential bargain. but i don't think we can say, look, i'm in favor if i'm king of the world, we would have the clinton tax rates back. 4%. but that's not going to just do it. raising the clinton tax rates for the top 1% or 2% of the country isn't going to produce enough revenue to get us there. >> governor, quickly, you talked about we are in crisis and we have to make a deal and crisis is valuable to the gop in the congress and used it to limit the leverage the president and the democrats would have so wouldn't that continue the problem and make it worse? >> no, no. i think we where speaker boehner is wrong is the idea to kick the can down the road, get over the fiscal cliff without putting up or shutting up. i think the time is now. >> yeah. yeah. he said he didn't think it could be solved in a lame duck congress. we can see. >> we can set it in motion and why v an agreement but steve's
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right. we can't kick the can down the road and lose leverage. make the outlines of a solid deal now and for the country, guys. the one thing they're right about, if we solve the debt, reduce the debt to a manageable part of gop, begin the process of eliminating the debt, the economy will take off. there will be an explosion. >> thanks for being with us. >> thanks, guys. up next, the tables have turned. we are crunching the numbers on all those political number krumpblers, a special post-election nate spot straight ahead. [ male announcer ] do you have the legal protection you need?
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that may be right for you. o0 c1  sfx- "sounds of african drum and flute" look who's back. again? it's embarrassing it's embarrassing! we can see you carl. we can totally see you. come on you're better than this...all that prowling around. yeah, you're the king of the jungle. have you thought about going vegan carl? hahaha!! you know folks who save hundreds of dollars by switching to geico sure are happy. how happy are they jimmy? happier than antelope with night-vision goggles. nice! get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. welcome back. as the numbers rolled in last night, it was the nerds that proved to be leading the race with the national polls trailing behind. who better to bring in than human calculator himself, joining us now is election nate, nate cohn of new republic. how are you doing this morning?
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>> doing well. pretty tired but slept in. >> join the club. >> polls were sort of a 12th man on the field of this election. the good, the bad and i think finally the vindicated. do you think we now stop talking about polls with a personality, polls that are skews, polls that favor one candidate over another? >> i think that the utility of the polling average has been demonstrated now pretty conclusively. i think part of the reason why democrats, you know, have learned to trust the polling average is spending most of 2004 and 2010 distrusting them and then, gosh, they were right in the end and now the republicans had the moment because in 2006 and 2008 the numbers so clear they didn't have to suffer through a close election and the polls showed them trailing and then confirming. >> i'm sure you were watching the returns and saying i hope my predictions is right. and it turned out that you were correct.
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krystal with the perfect map and i had the same map. doesn't matter who got there first. we had the same map. >> wait, wait. can i see toure's actual map? >> that is toure's actual map and looking like the electoral college map. you will note, i got it right. steve got 49 out of 50 and so did my son picking randomly. and that's the story i'm sticking to. >> i think there's another map. >> let's dig down in to the map. do we have the different rit rati it rations? >> but the game -- but the game was always that you could change throughout -- i got new information and i changed -- i got new information. >> we are so -- had the right map first. >> nate cohn, after you -- >> that's so wrong. >> after you picked my map and steve edged closer to me and toure wholesale adopted my map. >> no, no. >> now trying to take credit. nate, how smart do you feel today, nate?
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>> as i said beforehand, i think that people that look at the polls don't deserve too much credit here. predicting 49 of 50 states in the election could have been done by any fifth grader who knows how to calculate. >> a 4-year-old. >> a fourth grader, i don't know. but, the pollsters nailed it. they were just as accurate as they have been in the past despite the reasons to doubt whether they could do so. >> steve, i want to note before you get in here that steve friedman laughed at us for calling florida blue. >> we should say nbc news not called yet. >> not been called. >> obama is in the lead and locks like he'll take florida. >> right now mine's as right as all of yours. >> not mine. >> i wanted to ask -- >> not s.e.'s. >> the point you made there. the poll averages work because the polls in them generally working. there were some really sort of dead-on polls. look at the pew one at the end and duds to look back and say were really just out there. the one that jumps out to me is
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rasmussen, favorite poll of fox news and every angle conservative e-mail to me for six months and this guy who did unskewed polls, you know, this changing the party i.d. is to show this massive romney landslide. he was interviewed and said about rasmussen. he's lost a lot of credibility, as far as i'm concerned. he did a lot of surveys. a lot of those surveys were wrong. nate, my question to you, is there going to be a price to pay in reputation for a pollster like rasmussen? >> i think so. when you underestimate the strength of a candidate than doing one or two polls and being off by a few points. i think it's fine when it's three points but when you do 20 polls and all show obama doing worse by three. that's the case of rasmussen, who has an unorthodox
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methodological system. they don't sample cell phone voters. there's just -- there are too many layers of, you know, different areas that could have been causing the errors. for when the error comes in to say, well, that makes sense. maybe that's not and we should take as seriously in the future. >> unorthodox is as smackdown my friend nate will deliver. stay tuned for the next block as we had to see what s.e. did because she lost. now, just a week after superstorm sandy there's a nor'easter bearing down on the new york area right now. take a look at the scene from the top of the rock where high winds are blowing around. our first snowflakes of the season. >> yikes. >> this torm is coming in during two important high tides. sandy's damage leaves this area in a particularly vulnerable state. dylan dryer is tracking it all
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for us. >> we just got over sandy. we're in the process of getting over sandy and now we're talking about a wind-swept snowfall out there. this is insane but we are looking at not so much a huge storm but it is because of the timing here that are we looking at it as a significant nuisance to the northeast with winter storm advisories posted across the northeast. look how cool it is outside. 30 degrees in hartford. 33 degrees here in new york city. that's why we're seeing snow instead of rain. in philadelphia it's flop flopping back and forth between cold rain and snow. connecticut, rhode island, massachusetts, especially down in new york city, and new jersey, the last state that needs any sort of additional problems right now, is dealing with more snowfall. we are going to see the snow continue to affect us throughout the rest of the afternoon. it's going to make a mess of the evening commute. not that it's sticking so much on the roadways because they have been fairly warm, but a little bit of slush really makes a mess of any evening commute.
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as we go into tonight, later this evening we have a high tide. we could see a 1 to 3-foot storm surge, which will create more coastal flooding, especially in new jersey where there isn't a lot of protection because that's been wiped away. tonight we'll see the transition from snow over to rain. inland areas, especially across inland new england and inland new jersey we could end up with several inches of snow. we already have 1 1/2 inches of snow in connecticut where winds are up to 40 to nearly 55 miles per hour. wind-swept snow for a couple more hours should turn to rain along the coast. up next, nothing you thought you would see s.e. do. stay tuned for the next break. >> so have your fun tonight, but tomorrow morning you'll wake up and you'll have to take that walk of shame. wearing nothing but your obama
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so, we've been giving s.e. a little bit of a hard time. but i have to give my girl some credit. she did pick the president to win, so she got that prediction right. there was another prediction you got right, which was that either you or me would have the worst math. >> would be the farthest off.
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>> you were obviously the closest which would make me the farthest. >> yes. and with de have a bet going. >> we did have a bet. >> there are some consequences. >> only going to happen once. >> this is beautiful. >> oh, my god. >> this is beautiful! s.e. and obama, i love it. >> not just one, but there's four on here. four obamas. >> i know. we maximized -- >> one for every new year. >> open up that jacket. >> one obama for every -- >> that's enough of that. >> wear it with pride. he's your president, too. >> steve, you had some important thoughts here. >> vitally important. actually, s.e. has the t-shirt but i got the hot. >> nice. >> i was down here in virginia -- behind me in virginia, we were in thmanassas virginia, a bar and restaurant called okra's cajun and creole.
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go stop by okra's in manassas, it's a great place. >> you did a great job out there. we want to thank them, too, for hosting us. to my fellow cyclists, we had fun, even though we disagree. everybody's happy it's over. >> i'm so happy it's over. >> i'm not happy. let's keep going about our maps. >> i want to sleep for 15 hours. >> all that and more later. >> let's do a map for 2016 right now. >> that's it for "the cycle." martin bashir, it's all yours. >> good afternoon, it's wednesday, november 7th. we have breaking news for the romney transition team. we're sorry to tell you this, but you've just been outsourced. ♪ >> i have just called president obama to congratulate him on his victory. >> we may have battled fiercely, but it's only